Private residential prices posted 3.4 per cent gain in 2025 – slowest growth since 2020

SINGAPORE – Private residential prices grew at a slower pace of 3.4 per cent in 2025 – the slowest growth since 2020 – compared with a 3.9 per cent increase in 2024.

This comes despite new home sales hitting a four-year high in 2025, flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Jan 2 showed. 

The 3.4 per cent figure is substantially slower than the price growth of 6.8 per cent in 2023 and the 8.6 per cent rise in 2022. It also marks the slowest gain since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when prices rose 2.2 per cent.

In the fourth quarter, overall prices rose 0.7 per cent, down from a 0.9 per cent increase in the third quarter, as gains in prices of new non-landed homes and landed properties were capped by a drop in private resale prices.

Landed property prices grew by 3.5 per cent, the strongest quarterly growth recorded since the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with a 1.4 per cent increase in the third quarter.

In 2025, landed prices jumped 7.7 per cent, compared with a mere 0.9 per cent rise in 2024, because of persistent tight supply, property consultant Cushman & Wakefield research head Wong Xian Yang noted.

Also fuelling the overall price increase was a higher proportion of new sales in the fourth quarter and several new launches – including Skye at Holland, Zyon Grand, Penrith and The Continuum – selling at median prices of more than $2,500 per sq ft (psf) each, said Ms Christine Sun, chief research and strategist at real estate company Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.

More than 50 per cent of transactions in the fourth quarter were worth at least $2 million, compared with 47.1 per cent in the third quarter, she added.

One of the key drivers was a sharp moderation in interest rates, said real estate agency PropNex chief executive Kelvin Fong.

The three-month compounded Singapore overnight rate average, which banks use to price home loan packages, fell from 3.02 per cent at the start of 2025 to around 1.19 per cent as at Dec 31.

Overall, the primary market delivered a stellar performance in 2025, with 10,667 new private homes (excluding executive condominiums or ECs) sold, up from 6,469 units in 2024.

Transactions hit a four-year high in 2025, after 13,027 units were moved in 2021.

But in the fourth quarter, transaction volume shrank by 27.1 per cent to 5,399 deals, down from 7,404 registered in the third quarter, owing to the seasonal year-end lull.

“Developers typically postpone launches in December, when buyers travel during the holiday season. This moderation does not signal a softening market,” said Mr Marcus Chu, CEO of property firm ERA Singapore.

The year 2025 was a rocky one amid heightened global economic uncertainty, driven by unpredictable US trade policies, which caused new private home sales to slump in the second quarter after a bumper first quarter, said Ms Tricia Song, research head for South-east Asia at real estate company CBRE.

Nevertheless, a significant fall in domestic interest rates coupled with pent-up demand and an attractive pipeline of new launches fuelled a sharp rebound in the second half of 2025, she added.

A stronger-than-expected economic performance in the third quarter, alongside low unemployment and easing inflation, reinforced buyers’ sense of stability, Mr Chu said.

As buyers gravitated towards new launches, resale and sub-sale activity in the secondary market softened during the fourth quarter.

A sub-sale occurs when a condominium unit bought directly from the developer is sold to another buyer before the project is completed.

Weighed down by weaker prime district prices, non-landed private residential prices shed 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 0.8 per cent rise in the previous quarter.

For the whole of 2025, non-landed residential prices grew by 2.4 per cent, easing from 4.7 per cent in 2024.

Among sub-markets, prices of non-landed properties in the prime district fell the most, dropping by 3.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, reversing a 1.7 per cent growth in the third quarter.

Cushman’s Mr Wong believes that the drop in prime district prices is due to a “short-term price fluctuation arising from a change in the mix of new sale transactions”, rather than weak demand.

He noted that The Skye at Holland, which accounted for 51 per cent of overall prime district sales in the fourth quarter, moved 662 units at a median price of $2,948 psf.

In comparison, River Green and Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard, which accounted for 43 per cent of overall prime district sales in the third quarter, transacted at median prices of $3,111 psf and $3,277 psf respectively.

Prices of suburban properties grew the most by 1 per cent, compared with a 0.8 per cent rise in the third quarter, while city fringe properties saw a 0.7 per cent price gain in the fourth quarter, up from a 0.3 per cent increase in the third quarter.

“Buyers can expect a pipeline of 19 private residential projects and five EC launches this year. While this is fewer than 2025, which saw 24 private developments and two EC launches, overall home buying demand is expected to remain healthy,” Mr Chu added.

Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property search portal Mogul.sg, expects slower overall private residential price growth in 2026 owing to fewer new launches in the pipeline and because interest rates may not fall significantly.

Further, slower price growth in the HDB resale market in 2026 would limit the housing budgets of HDB upgraders and, in turn, cap private non-landed price growth, especially in the mass market segment, he added.

In addition, 4,575 private residential units will be tendered out through the confirmed list of the first-half 2026 Government Land Sales programme, which is 50 per cent above the average confirmed list supply over the past decade. Another 4,610 units will be made available via the reserve list.